From within the dark confines of the skull, the brain builds its own version of reality. By weaving together expectations and information gleaned from the senses, the brain creates a story about the outside world. For most of us, the brain is a skilled storyteller, but to spin a sensible yarn, it has to fill in some details itself.

“The brain is a guessing machine, trying at each moment of time to guess what is out there,” says computational neuroscientist Peggy Seriès.
Guesses just slightly off — like mistaking a smile for a smirk — rarely cause harm. But guessing gone seriously awry may play a part in mental illnesses such as schizophrenia, autism and even anxiety disorders, Seriès and other neuroscientists suspect. They say that a mathematical expression known as Bayes’ theorem — which quantifies how prior expectations can be combined with current evidence — may provide novel insights into pernicious mental problems that have so far defied explanation.
Bayes’ theorem “offers a new vocabulary, new tools and a new way to look at things,” says Seriès, of the University of Edinburgh.

Experiments guided by Bayesian math reveal that the guessing process differs in people with some disorders. People with schizophrenia, for instance, can have trouble tying together their expectations with what their senses detect. And people with autism and high anxiety don’t flexibly update their expectations about the world, some lab experiments suggest. That missed step can muddy their decision-making abilities.
Given the complexity of mental disorders such as schizophrenia and autism, it is no surprise that many theories of how the brain works have fallen short, says psychiatrist and neuroscientist Rick Adams of University College London. Current explanations for the disorders are often vague and untestable. Against that frustrating backdrop, Adams sees great promise in a strong mathematical theory, one that can be used to make predictions and actually test them.

“It’s really a step up from the old-style cognitive psychology approach, where you had flowcharts with boxes and labels on them with things like ‘attention’ or ‘reading,’ but nobody having any idea about what was going on in [any] box,” Adams says.

Applying math to mental disorders “is a very young field,” he adds, pointing to Computational Psychiatry, which plans to publish its first issue this summer. “You know a field is young when it gets its first journal.”

A mind for math
Bayesian reasoning may be new to the mental illness scene, but the math itself has been around for centuries. First described by the Rev. Thomas Bayes in the 18th century, this computational approach truly embraces history: Evidence based on previous experience, known as a “prior,” is essential to arriving at a good answer, Bayes argued. He may have been surprised to see his math meticulously applied to people with mental illness, but the logic holds. To make a solid guess about what’s happening in the world, the brain must not rely just on current input from occasionally unreliable senses. The brain must also use its knowledge about what has happened before. Merging these two streams of information correctly is at the heart of perceiving the world as accurately as possible.

Bayes figured out a way to put numbers to this process. By combining probabilities that come from prior evidence and current observations, Bayes’ formula can be used to calculate an overall estimate of the likelihood that a given suspicion is true. A properly functioning brain seems to do this calculation intuitively, behaving in many cases like a skilled Bayesian statistician, some studies show (SN: 10/8/11, p. 18).

This reckoning requires the brain to give the right amount of weight to prior expectations and current information. Depending on the circumstances, those weights change. When the senses falter, for instance, the brain should lean more heavily on prior expectations. Say the mail carrier comes each day at 4 p.m. On a stormy afternoon when visual cues are bad, we rely less on sight and more on prior knowledge to guess that the late-afternoon noise on the front porch is probably the mail carrier delivering letters. In certain mental illnesses, this flexible balancing act may falter.

People with schizophrenia often suffer from hallucinations and delusions, debilitating symptoms that arise when lines between reality and imagination blur. That confusion can lead to hearing voices that aren’t there and believing things that can’t possibly be true. These departures from reality could arise from differences in how people integrate new evidence with previous beliefs.
There’s evidence for such distorted calculations. People with schizophrenia don’t fall for certain visual illusions that trick most people, for instance. When shown a picture of the inside of a hollowed-out face mask, most people’s brains mistakenly convert the image to a face that pops outward off the page. People with schizophrenia, however, are more likely to see the face as it actually is — a concave mask. In that instance, people with schizophrenia give more weight to information that’s coming from their eyes than to their expectation that noses protrude from the rest of the face.
To complicate matters, the opposite can be true, too, says neuropsychologist Chris Frith of the Wellcome Trust Centre for Neuroimaging at University College London. “In this case, their prior is too weak, but in other cases, their prior is too strong,” he says.

In a recent study, healthy people and those who recently began experiencing psychosis, a symptom of schizophrenia, were shown confusing shadowy black-and-white images. Participants then saw color versions of the images that were easier to interpret. When shown the black-and-white images again, people with early psychosis were better at identifying the images, suggesting that they used their prior knowledge — the color pictures — to truly “see” the images. For people without psychosis, the color images weren’t as much help. That difference suggests that the way people with schizophrenia balance past knowledge and present observations is distinct from the behavior of people without the disorder. Sometimes the balance tips too far — in either direction.

In a talk at the annual Computational and Systems Neuroscience meeting in February in Salt Lake City, Seriès described the results of a different visual test: A small group of people with schizophrenia had to describe which way a series of dots were moving on a screen. The dots moved in some directions more frequently than others — a statistical feature that let the scientists see how well people could learn to predict the dots’ directions. The 11 people with schizophrenia seemed just as good at learning which way the dots were likely to move as the 10 people without, Seriès said. In this situation, people with schizophrenia seemed able to learn priors just fine.

But when another trick was added, a split between the two groups emerged. Sometimes, the dots were almost impossible to see, and sometimes, there were no dots at all. People with schizophrenia were less likely to claim that they saw dots when the screen was blank. Perhaps they didn’t hallucinate dots because of the medication they were on, Seriès says. In fact, very early results from unmedicated people with schizophrenia suggest that they actually see dots that aren’t there more than healthy volunteers.
Preliminary results so far on schizophrenia are sparse and occasionally conflicting, Seriès admits. “It’s the beginning,” she says. “We don’t understand much.”

The research is so early that no straightforward story exists yet. But that’s not unexpected. “If 100 years of schizophrenia research have taught us anything, it’s that there’s not going to be a nice, simple explanation,” Adams says. But using math to describe how people perceive the world may lead to new hunches about how that process goes wrong in mental illnesses, he argues.

“You can instill expectations in subjects in many different ways, and you can control what evidence they see,” Adams says. Bayesian theory “tells you what they should conclude from those prior beliefs and that evidence.” If their conclusions diverge from predictions, scientists can take the next step. Brain scans, for instance, may reveal how the wrong answers arise. With a clear description of these differences, he says, “we might be able to measure people’s cognition in a new way, and diagnose their disorders in a new way.”

Now vs. then
The way the brain combines incoming sensory information with existing knowledge may also be different in autism, some researchers argue. In some cases, people with autism might put excess weight on what their senses take in about the world and rely less on their expectations. Old observations fit with this idea. In the 1960s, psychologists had discovered that children with autism were just as good at remembering nonsense sentences (“By is go tree stroke lets”) as meaningful ones (“The fish swims in the pond”). Children without autism struggled to remember the non sequiturs. But the children with autism weren’t thrown by the random string of words, suggesting that their expectations of sentence meaning weren’t as strong as their ability to home in on each word in the series.

Another study supports the notion that sensory information takes priority in people with autism. People with and without autism were asked to judge whether a sight and a sound happened at the same time. They saw a white ring on a screen, and a tone played before, after or at the same time. Adults without autism were influenced by previous trials in which the ring and tone were slightly off. But adults with autism were not swayed by earlier trials, researchers reported in February in Scientific Reports.

This literal perception might get in the way of speech perception, Marco Turi of the University of Pisa in Italy and colleagues suggest. Comprehending speech requires a listener to mentally stitch together sights and sounds that may not arrive at the eyes and ears at the same time. Losing that flexibility could make speech harder to understand.

A different study found that children with autism perceive moving dots more clearly than children without autism (SN Online: 5/5/15). The brains of people with autism seem to prioritize incoming sensory information over expectations about how things ought to work. Elizabeth Pellicano of University College London and David Burr of the University of Western Australia in Perth described the concept in 2012 in an opinion paper in Trends in Cognitive Sciences. Intensely attuned to information streaming in from the senses, people with autism experience the world as “too real,” Pellicano and Perth wrote.

New data, however, caution against a too-simple explanation. In an experiment presented in New York City in April at the annual meeting of the Cognitive Neuroscience Society, 20 adults with and without autism had to quickly hit a certain key on a keyboard when they saw its associated target on a screen. Their job was made easier because the targets came in a certain sequence. All of the participants improved as they learned which keys to expect. But when the sequence changed to a new one, people with autism faltered. This result suggests that they learned prior expectations just fine, but had trouble updating them as conditions changed, said cognitive neuroscientist Owen Parsons of the University of Cambridge.
Distorted calculations — and the altered versions of the world they create — may also play a role in depression and anxiety, some researchers think. While suffering from depression, people may hold on to distorted priors — believing that good things are out of reach, for instance. And people with high anxiety can have trouble making good choices in a volatile environment, neuroscientist Sonia Bishop of the University of California, Berkeley and colleagues reported in 2015 in Nature Neuroscience.

In their experiment, people had to choose a shape, which sometimes  came with a shock. People with low anxiety quickly learned to avoid the shock, even when the relationship between shape and shock changed. But people with high anxiety performed worse when those relationships changed, the researchers found. “High-anxious individuals didn’t seem able to adjust their learning to handle how volatile or how stable the environment was,” Bishop says.
Scientists can’t yet say what causes this difficulty adjusting to a new environment in anxious people and in people with autism. It could be that once some rule is learned (a sequence of computer keys, or the link between a shape and a shock), these two groups struggle to update that prior with newer information.

This rigidity might actually contribute to anxiety in the first place, Bishop speculates. “When something unexpected happens that is bad, you wouldn’t know how to respond,” and that floundering “is likely to be a huge source of anxiety and stress.”

Recalculating
“There’s been a lot of frustration with a failure to make progress” on psychiatric disorders, Bishop says. Fitting mathematical theories to the brain may be a way to move forward. Researchers “are very excited about computational psychiatry in general,” she says.

Computational psychiatrist Quentin Huys of the University of Zurich is one of those people. Math can help clarify mental illnesses in a way that existing approaches can’t, he says. In the March issue of Nature Neuroscience, Huys and colleagues argued that math can demystify psychiatric disorders, and that thinking of the brain as a Bayesian number cruncher might lead to a more rigorous understanding of mental illness. Huys says that a computational approach is essential. “We can’t get away without it.” If people with high anxiety perform differently on a perceptual test, then that test could be used to both diagnose people and monitor how well a treatment works, for instance.

Scientists hope that a deeper description of mental illnesses may lead to clearer ways to identify a disorder, chart how well treatments work and even improve therapies. Bishop raises the possibility of developing apps to help people with high anxiety evaluate situations  — outsourcing the decision making for people who have trouble. Frith points out that cognitive behavioral therapy could help depressed people recalculate their experiences by putting less weight on negative experiences and perhaps breaking out of cycles of despondence.

Beyond these potential interventions, simply explaining to people how their brains are working might ease distress, Adams says. “If you can give people an explanation that makes sense of some of the experiences they’ve had, that can be a profoundly helpful thing,” he says. “It destigmatizes the experience.”

Genetically engineered crops don’t appear to harm humans or the environment, according to a new report released May 17 by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine.

An extensive analysis of two decades’ worth of evidence dug up no substantial proof that genetically engineered foods were any less safe to eat than those that are conventionally bred. The study’s authors also found no conclusive causal link between the engineered crops and environmental problems. The authors note, though, that it’s not always easy to make definitive conclusions; measuring long-term environmental changes is complicated.

The news comes in the midst of political tumult in the United States over laws to label foods made with GE ingredients. But when it comes to food safety and the environment, the authors conclude, how a plant is made isn’t as important as what is actually created.

“It is the product, not the process, that should be regulated,” the authors write.

Our home planet is young at heart. According to new calculations, Earth’s center is more than two years younger than its surface.

In Einstein’s general theory of relativity, massive objects warp the fabric of spacetime, creating a gravitational pull and slowing time nearby. So a clock placed at Earth’s center will tick ever-so-slightly slower than a clock at its surface. Such time shifts are determined by the gravitational potential, a measure of the amount of work it would take to move an object from one place to another. Since climbing up from Earth’s center would be a struggle against gravity, clocks down deep would run slow relative to surface timepieces.
Over the 4.5 billion years of Earth’s history, the gradual shaving off of fractions of a second adds up to a core that’s 2.5 years younger than the planet’s crust, researchers estimate in the May European Journal of Physics. Theoretical physicist Richard Feynman had suggested in the 1960s that the core was younger, but only by a few days.
The new calculation neglects geological processes, which have a larger impact on the planet’s age. For example, Earth’s core probably formed earlier than its crust. Instead, says study author Ulrik Uggerhøj of Aarhus University in Denmark, the calculation serves as an illustration of gravity’s influence on time — very close to home.

3-D Home TV Foreseen — The pace of new developments in the recently revived method of photography known as holography is so fast that three-dimensional television sets portraying life-size scenes could be a reality before 1984, as was predicted in George Orwell’s novel…. A hologram is a recording of an interference pattern reflected from an object. From this recording, the object can be reconstructed visually in a three-dimensional form. — Science News, June 11, 1966

UPDATE
Television viewers are still waiting for the 3-D revolution. Although 3-D TVs went on sale in the United States and elsewhere in 2010, they have yet to take off. Most sets require special glasses or have limited viewing angles, and none use holography to create the illusion of depth. Scientists haven’t given up, though. Using innovative plastic screens, researchers are projecting small holographic movies in real time (SN: 12/17/11, p. 18). The enormous bandwidth and processing power needed to transmit and display the images are still huge barriers to making Orwell’s vision a reality.

The green hairstreak butterfly (Callophrys rubi) gets its blue-green hue from complex nanoscale structures on its wings. The structures, called gyroids, are repeating patterns of spiral-shaped curls. Light waves bouncing off the patterned surface (top inset above) interfere with one another, amplifying green colors while washing out other shades (SN: 6/7/08, p. 26).

Scientists led by Min Gu of the Royal Melbourne Institute of Technology in Australia have now painstakingly re-created the gyroid structure by sculpting the shapes out of a special resin that solidifies when hit with laser light. The technique, called optical two-beam lithography, uses a pair of lasers to set the material in just the right pattern. Afterward, the remaining resin can be washed away, leaving only the gyroid structure. The fabricated version repeats its pattern every 360 nanometers, or billionths of a meter.

The gyroid structures determine more than just color. They also divvy up light that is circularly polarized — its electric fields spiral either clockwise or counterclockwise. In the butterfly, this effect is weak because of irregularities in the structure. But the artificial version sorts the light according to polarization, reflecting one type much more than the other, the researchers report May 13 in Science Advances.

The ability to control circular polarization of light with structures like these could allow scientists to increase the bandwidth of optical communications, the researchers say. The two polarizations of light could each carry different information, which could then be separated and decoded down the line.

The biggest ice shelf collapse on record was set in motion years earlier than previously thought, new research reveals.

Analyzing declassified images from spy satellites, researchers discovered that the downhill flow of ice on Antarctica’s Larsen B ice shelf was already accelerating as early as the 1960s and ’70s. By the late 1980s, the average ice velocity at the front of the shelf was around 20 percent faster than in the preceding decades, the researchers report in a paper to be published in Geophysical Research Letters.
Rising temperatures since the 1950s probably quickened the ice flow, which in turn put more strain on the ice and further weakened the shelf, says study coauthor Hongxing Liu, a geographer at the University of Cincinnati. Previous work had suggested that the ice shelf’s downward slide began only a few years before a Rhode Island-sized region of ice disintegrated into thousands of icebergs in 2002.

The new data will help scientists more confidently predict how Antarctic ice will fare in the coming decades, says Penn State glaciologist Richard Alley, who was not involved in the work. The early response of Larsen B to warming “is consistent with this ice shelf system being sensitive, and gives a target for future modeling studies to learn how sensitive, and for what reasons,” he says.

Ice shelves such as Larsen B line Antarctica’s coast and slow the flow of the continent’s glaciers and ice sheets into the sea. Rising temperatures are shrinking Antarctica’s ice, with several ice shelves on track to disappear completely within 100 years (SN Online: 3/26/15). Tracking the long-term decline of ice shelves is tricky, though. Scientific satellite images are sparse prior to the 1990s and next to nonexistent before the 1980s.

Liu and colleagues turned to another group that peered at Antarctica, a U.S. intelligence agency called the National Reconnaissance Office. In 1963, the agency photographed the continent as part of an intelligence-gathering mission. While these images were declassified in 1995, the photos were too distorted by effects such as the camera used and Earth’s curvature to use for ice flow measurements.

Making the photographs usable required identifying stationary landmarks for reference, a difficult task on a continent covered with shifting white ice. Comparing the spy photos with later scientific images, Liu and colleagues identified 44 potential landmarks. Then, using the locations as anchor points, the researchers unwarped the images. Along with additional satellite images snapped in 1979 and the 1980s, the modified images allowed the researchers to track Larsen B’s ice flow over time.
The ice on Larsen B’s front flowed at around 400 meters per year on average between 1963 and 1986, calculations using images from those years indicate. From 1986 to 1988, the average was 490 meters per year. That speed boost suggests that the ice flow accelerated between the 1963 to 1986 satellite images. Several glaciers that feed into Larsen B underwent similar accelerations, the researchers found.

Larsen B’s early acceleration hints that the ice shelf was already weakening well before the 1990s, says Ted Scambos, a polar scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colo., who was not involved in the study. Previous studies suggested that balmy surface temperatures caused Larsen B’s demise by forming meltwater pools on top of the ice shelf that forced open cracks in the ice (SN: 10/18/14, p. 9). The new satellite data suggest that this fracturing was a finishing blow following long-term weakening by forces such as relatively warm seawater eroding the ice shelf’s underside, Scambos says.

Any parent trying to hustle a school-bound kid out the door in the morning knows that her child’s skull possesses a strange and powerful form of black magic: It can repel parents’ voices. Important messages like “find your shoes” bounce off the impenetrable fortress and drift unheeded to the floor.

But when this perplexing force field is off, it turns out that mothers’ voices actually have profound effects on kids. Children’s brains practically buzz when they hear their moms’ voices, scientists report in the May 31 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. (Fun and not surprising side note: Babies’ voices get into moms’ brains, too.)

The parts of kids’ brains that handle emotions, face recognition and reward were prodded into action by mothers’ voices, brain scans of 24 children ages 7 to 12 revealed. And words were not required to get this big reaction. In the study, children listened to nonsense words said by either their mother or one of two unfamiliar women. Even when the words were fake, mothers’ voices still prompted lots of neural action.

The study was done in older kids, but children are known to tune into their mothers’ voices early. Really early, in fact. One study found that fetuses’ heart rates change when they hear their moms read a story. For a fetus crammed into a dark, muffled cabin, voices may take on outsized importance.

And voices carry particularly powerful messages throughout childhood. “A tremendous amount of emotional information is conveyed to children through auditory channels,” says University of Wisconsin-Madison child psychologist Seth Pollak. And, he points out, kids are small. “Kids’ faces are down around our knees. And children who are crawling are looking at the ground,” he says. This obvious point means that facial expressions and other visual signals might not pack as much punch as a voice.

Of course, voices other than those belonging to moms are also important. Pollak says that voices of fathers — or any other caregiver who spends lots of time around a child — probably affect children’s brains in a similar way. It’s just that those studies haven’t been done yet.

The results of the latest brain scan study make a lot of sense, says Pollak. Some of the brain regions activated are those involved in feeling good. “A caregiver’s voice is actually rewarding. It activates the systems that make us feel calm,” he says.
And the new study might help explain some of Pollak’s earlier results. He and his colleagues stressed out 68 girls, who happened to be the same ages as those in the brain scanning study, by making them do math and word problems in front of three unsmiling adult strangers — a terrifying prospect for most kids. (And adults.) After their ordeal, the girls either talked to their moms in person, on the phone or by instant messenger.

Compared with the instant messenger typers, the girls who saw their moms in person or talked to them on the phone were more soothed, showing lower levels of stress hormones. That finding, published in 2012 in Evolution and Human Behavior, suggests that to a kid, there’s something especially calming about hearing her own mother’s voice.

And now, by showing the widespread reaction to a mother’s voice, the brain data back that up. “It all kind of hangs together in a way that I think is very intuitive,” Pollak says. In other words, a mother’s voice is powerful, perhaps even strong enough to overcome a force field.

Thanks to modern laser technology, Southeast Asia’s Khmer Empire is rising from forest floors for the first time in centuries.

New findings show the remarkable extent to which Khmer people built cities and transformed landscapes from at least the fifth to the 15th century, and perhaps for several hundred years after that, says archaeologist Damian Evans of Cambodia’s Siem Reap Center. Laser mapping in 2015 of about 1,910 square kilometers of largely forested land in northern Cambodia indicates that gridded city streets and extensive canals emerged surprisingly early, by around A.D. 500, Evans reports June 13 in the Journal of Archaeological Science. Researchers have generally assumed that large-scale urban development began later at Greater Angkor, capital of the Khmer Empire from the ninth to 15th centuries (SN: 5/14/16, p. 22).
A helicopter carrying light detection and ranging equipment, lidar for short, flew sorties over seven Khmer sites in the vicinity of Greater Angkor. Lidar’s laser pulses gathered data on the contours of jungle- and vegetation-covered land. Lidar maps revealed city blocks, canals and other remnants of past settlements.
Mysterious ground features previously identified by lidar surveys at Angkor Wat temple in Greater Angkor also turned up at several sites, some located as many as 100 kilometers from Greater Angkor. Those sites include the eighth to ninth century city of Mahendraparvata and a 12th century city, Preah Khan of Kompong Svay. Fields of precisely arranged earthen mounds at these settlements may have been used to collect rainwater, Evans speculates. Earthen embankments forming coiled or spiral patterns might have been gardens or ceremonial spaces.

“It’s humbling to see the lidar data and realize how much was previously missed in ground surveys at Preah Khan,” says archaeologist Mitch Hendrickson of the University of Illinois at Chicago. Hendrickson conducts research at Preah Khan, one of several ancient cities that provided food and other services to Greater Angkor via an extensive road system.

Before the 2015 lidar survey, Mahendraparvata was known “only from inscription texts and a few bits of broken-down masonry,” adds archaeologist Charles Higham of the University of Otago in Dunedin, New Zealand. Mahendraparvata’s laser-traced layout indicates it was an early, small-scale version of Greater Angkor, Higham says.
A military invasion and sacking of Greater Angkor in the 15th century apparently did not result in most of its roughly 750,000 residents abandoning the site, as many investigators have thought. Lidar data from 2015 indicate that Khmer capitals established after Greater Angkor’s defeat, such as Longvek and Oudong, show no signs of dense populations created by mass relocations from the former capital, Evans says.

That suggests that the political state collapsed at Greater Angkor, but hundreds of thousands of rice farmers carried on, Hendrickson says. “Lots of fish and rice were still available,” he says. “Local farmers were more resilient than the state was.”

Coral reefs won’t be out of hot water anytime soon. A global bleaching event that began in June 2014 is the longest on record and now covers a larger area than ever before. What’s worse, it shows no signs of ending.

Global warming exacerbated by the latest El Niño is to blame, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists reported Monday at the 13th International Coral Reef Symposium in Honolulu. Since 1979, periodic mass bleachings covering hundreds of kilometers have only lasted for “a year or so,” said NOAA Coral Reef Watch Coordinator Mark Eakin. But this one has dragged on for two years, threatening more than 40 percent of reefs globally, and more than 70 percent in the United States.

When corals are stressed by heat, they reject the colorful algae living inside them and turn a ghostly white. Those algae are a major source of food, so reefs can die if conditions don’t improve.

NOAA scientists aren’t sure what will end this episode. It could extend into 2017, and more frequent events are possible in the future, the scientists said. “Climate models suggest that most coral reefs may be seeing bleaching every other year by mid-century,” Eakin added. “How much worse that gets will depend on how we deal with global warming.”

Everyone ages. Growing old is a fundamental feature of human existence.

Though we might not always be aware of aging, it looms in all of our futures. As Science News editor in chief Eva Emerson writes, “Aging happens to each of us, everywhere, all the time. It is so ever-present and slow that we tend to take little notice of it. Until we do.”

But, our scientific understanding of aging pales in comparison to its significance in our lives. While new studies reveal exciting prospects for slowing the effects of aging, its causes and extensive effects remain enigmatic.
Scientists are still divided on some fundamentals of aging, and that’s why aging research raises some interesting questions. For example, how does it change the brain? How did different life histories evolve? How old is the oldest blue whale? This special report addresses those questions and more.